Most countries have now submitted emissions plans ahead of the Paris climate talks later this year, but success in forging a global treaty in Paris is far from guaranteed. Delegations from nearly 200 countries are meeting this week in Bonn, Germany, to pin down details of a draft agreement ahead of the U.N. talks. On the opening day, the dropping of language on financing of climate change and adaptation efforts from the draft text caused concern on the part of developing nations. After countries were invited to reinsert language, the text grew by more than a dozen pages (subscription).
Daniel Reifsnyder, one of the U.N. talks’ chairmen and a senior State Department official, said the Bonn meeting won’t resolve one of the biggest issues of disagreement for delegates—differentiation of developed countries and developing countries’ responsibilities. Progress might be made on other issues, he said, such as “whether there should be a precondition—like submitting a domestic climate plan to the U.N.—to join the agreement and to exercise decision-making rights.”
Looking for a strong outcome at the Paris talks are 81 U.S. companies. On Monday, the White House announced that 68 companies—ranging from banks to energy firms—had joined Alcoa, Apple, Bank of America, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, and nine other original signatories to the White House-sponsored American Business Act on Climate Pledge. Signatories to the pledge, announced this summer, call for the Paris meeting to advance climate action and have offered up individual promises to cut their greenhouse gases and limit waste.
“Delaying action on climate change will be costly in economic and human terms, while accelerating the transition to a low-carbon economy will produce multiple benefits with regard to sustainable economic growth, public health, resilience to natural disasters, and the health of the global environment,” the pledge says.
The White House also said on Monday that it expects a consortium of major investors to announce $1.2 billion in investment capital for companies and projects that can “produce impactful and profitable solutions to climate change.”
Study: Some Cities Already “Sunk” Due to Sea-Level Rise
Some 400 U.S. towns and cities with a collective population of more than 20 million are vulnerable to sea level rise—and some of them may be submerged regardless of efforts to address climate change, according to a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that links carbon dioxide to sea level rise. A new map from Climate Central uses the study data to show how water will flow into U.S. cities under the best and worst climate change scenarios. The map pinpoints which U.S. cities may face “lock-in dates beyond which the cumulative effects of carbon emissions likely commit them to long-term sea-level rise that could submerge land under more than half of the city’s population.”
Lead study author Ben Strauss said that seas could rise 14–32 feet by 2100 in the absence of unchecked carbon emissions but that even with stringent emissions reduction action, it might already be too late for cities like New Orleans and Miami (subscription). Inundation could occur, he said, as soon as the next century, but it could take much longer.
The study finds that decisions made in this century will determine whether Jacksonville, Norfolk, Sacramento, and 11 other U.S. cities with populations greater than 100,000 will be locked in for inundation of at least half of their populated areas.
Strauss emphasized that many cities can be saved with swift action to reduce carbon emissions.
“The most interesting thing to me is there are a great deal of cities where our carbon choices make a huge difference,” he said. “For example, if you look at Philadelphia, under business as usual, land that accounts for more than 100,000 people could be submerged. But you divide that total by 10 with an extreme carbon cut. The very biggest difference of all is for New York City, where you can avoid submergence of land where one and a half million people live.”
September Global Average Temperature Keeps 2015 on Track for Record
Earth is on course to experience its warmest year on record, according to data and patterns studied by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). NASA put 2015’s record-breaking chances at 93 percent. NOAA put them at 97 percent.
The news comes as a JMA data set that tracks global average surface temperatures indicated a big jump in temperatures in September, compared to the 1981–2010 average. September 2015, the second warmest September on record, had a temperature anomaly of 0.50 degrees Celsius, far exceeding the typical margin by which global average temperature records—whether they’re months or years—are set.
The Climate Post offers a rundown of the week in climate and energy news. It is produced each Thursday by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions.